OS X Lion Makes Windows 8 Too LateOS X Lion Makes Windows 8 Too Late

Mobile devices have changed forever expectations of how computers should respond to human input. Point-and-click has been replaced by touch, grab, and swipe. As a result, consumers and workers who still require a desktop PC now want machines that look and feel like their smartphones and tablets. Microsoft and Apple both know this.

The difference between them: Apple's new tablet-mimicking operating system, OS X 10.7 "lion" is ready now. Windows 8? Could be later this year, or maybe sometime in 2012. No one really knows, and that's a problem for Redmond.

Apple released Lion on Wednesday. The update puts the Mac App store on the home screen; pulls users' documents, applications, and files together through a hub called Mission Control; and turns the Mac into a big iPad by enabling full-screen apps that react to multi-touch gestures.

These features should come as no surprise. No one knows better than Steve Jobs that the iPad has put the mouse on the endangered species list. Apple's tablet isn't just displacing, as Goldman Sachs notes, 33% of PC sales; it's also cannibalizing the Mac. Apple hopes a more iPadish Mac will convince consumers that there's room for both devices—after all, it still earns fat profit margins off pricey products like MacBook Air.

As for Windows? Windows 7 is slick, stable, and perhaps Microsoft's best operating system since the venerable XP debuted a decade ago. It's great for point-and-click computing—which may vanish within the next couple of years for all but a minority of users. Microsoft is working feverishly to get Windows 8 out the door. It too will provide the option of working in tablet mode. Microsoft's problem is that this is yet another race in which it is well behind Apple.

Microsoft promises a full Windows 8 preview at its Build conference in September. Some pundits have pegged its debut in time for the 2011 holiday shopping season. But given the company's penchant for delay when it comes to pushing new software out the door, and the fact that Windows 8 will feature significant architectural changes from its predecessors, others think it won't see daylight until mid-2012 at the earliest.

Apple by then may have claimed its beachhead in general-purpose office computing, as business users push their IT departments for computers that resemble what they're comfortable with at home. For an increasing number, that means tablets—specifically, the iPad.

Microsoft believes it retains a trump card. Windows 8 will stretch across desktops and tablets, letting users—in theory—easily switch between devices while retaining access to all their apps. Apple's world, even post-Lion, remains split between the Mac OS for PCs and laptops, and iOS for tablets and smartphones.

But it's not that simple. Windows 8 will indeed run PCs and tablets, but the tablet version is being built for ARM's system-on-a-chip architecture, while its PC cousin stays on Intel's x86 architecture. Microsoft hasn't said much about what this forking means for cross-platform compatibility, but Intel claims that existing apps won't run on Windows-on-ARM. It's also possible, even likely, that by the time Microsoft gets around to shipping Windows 8, Apple will have developed an emulator that lets its customers run iOS apps on Lion.

Fact is, Microsoft has opened yet another door for a competitor to encroach on a space it once owned. Microsoft officials will point out that the iPad didn't even exist two years ago and that there's plenty of time to catch up. That combination of irrelevant fact and risky supposition misses the point. Personal computing, as of July 2011, is all about mobile and tablets. And not just in the consumer market. A quick glance around the room at any business conference puts to rest the notion that tablets are having minimal impact in the enterprise.

Workers are just waiting for the day they can kiss off their desktops and sciatica-inducing "portable" laptops forever. With OSX Lion, Apple is building a bridge to that day by making the Mac look, feel, and smell much like the iPad. Microsoft is taking the same tack with Windows 8. It's just taking longer—maybe too long.