Day 2 At 3GSM: The Wireless Industry Grows UpDay 2 At 3GSM: The Wireless Industry Grows Up

It is day two at the 3GSM World Congress in Barcelona and the crowds have swelled since yesterday. There are now 60,000 people congregated in the exhibition halls and the atmosphere is electric. Yesterday felt a little slow. The halls weren't that crowded and the pace was a little down. I half expected this show to disappoint based on yesterday's atmosphere. But, today it's a totally different story.If day one was about news, day two is about the schmooze. Delegates (that's the fancy term for show attendees used here at 3GSM) are furiously pitching their new phones and applications and everyone is talking business.

The hallways are literally packed to capacity in some locations, like Hall 8, where most of the phone makers are showing off their new wares. The Plaza Espanya outside the exhibition hall is filled with advertisements. Stilt walkers, clowns, and unicyclists saunter through the plaza entertaining (or annoying) the delegates as they talk furiously on their cell phones and run to catch meetings.

Right now there are three big stories at 3GSM. The first is the debate over mobile TV. Some wireless companies are moving to spin mobile TV, warning that it's not ready for prime time and isn't likely to be anytime soon.

Others, like Nokia, are pushing ahead with new mobile TV handsets and services, hoping to spur interest even as they scramble to make the technology work.

The second story is that the wireless industry is growing up. Eight years ago I watched as the wireless industry moved from niche to mainstream. Today, it's moving from mainstream to everyday necessity.

A big part of this means that wireless growth is slowing. Researcher iSuppli claims that wireless growth this year will slow to 12.8%. That's down significantly from the 25% growth rates the industry saw in 2005 and 2006. The research company also warns that wireless growth will continue to slow, dipping to 9.6% in 2008 and 7% in 2009.

These are still respectable numbers, but they look a lot more like other mature high tech sectors.

What does this mean for the future of wireless? I think it means that wireless is still the future of most high tech. Cell phones are the biggest-selling consumer electronics device category globally (1 billion units shipped in 2006) and that's not going to change for a long time. What it means is that as wireless has now gone from upstart to Main Street to everyday, its growth will look a lot more like that of the mainstream market. This same kind of maturation has affected a number of other growth markets, from PCs to DVDs to enterprise IT.

You can sense that the wireless industry here at 3GSM is very proud of its accomplishments but also a little worried about the future. Well, with double-digit growth numbers expected for this year and strong single-digit growth projected for the next four years, I don't think they need to worry too much. Not yet.