Google's Android Era Set To BeginGoogle's Android Era Set To Begin

When Google unveiled its Android mobile software platform last November, it was clear that the search giant had broader ambitions than just a Gphone.

The Linux-based open source platform and the Google-backed Open Handset Alliance are seeking to merge the openness of the Internet with the mobile space. These lofty goals potentially make Android a major disruption in the mobile communications industry. However, multiple questions remain.

One thing for certain, T-Mobile will officially announce the first Android-powered handset on Sept. 23. While details aren't official, FCC filings suggest the Dream (or G1) will sport a large touch screen that flips out to reveal a full QWERTY keyboard.

The smartphone is expected to have built-in Wi-Fi, GPS, and will be capable of using T-Mobile's expanding 3G network. It's expected to be on sale in mid-October, and the handset will undoubtedly have an entire industry watching it.

Google's Dream

For Google, Android is all about getting mobile users onto the Internet, where the search company can use its expertise to provide a better user experience. The operating system is royalty-free, so hardware manufacturers can potentially spend their money on better hardware or on research and development.

Additionally, Google wants to make it easier for mobile users to download and add applications to their mobile devices like they can on a PC. The open source nature will potentially allow others to improve the software, like with desktop Linux.

Consulting company Strategy Analytics predicts the Android smartphone will capture 4% of the U.S. smartphone market in the fourth quarter. This represents about 400,000 units sold, and it is a healthy figure considering the handset's not expected to go on sale until the middle of the quarter.

According to Chris Ambrosio, executive director of Strategy Analytics, the Dream's price point will be an important factor of adoption. The Wall Street Journal recently reported the first Android handset will debut for $199.

Ambrosio said there appears to be a large level of interest within the industry, but the mass-market appeal is currently lacking. That should change after T-Mobile's official announcement, as the carrier will probably put great effort into marketing the first Android-powered handset.

Jason Spero, VP of marketing for AdMob, said there hasn't been a clear marketing push for Android. Despite recent crossover, Spero said the BlackBerry is primarily marketed as the best device for the mobile workforce, and the iPhone is marketed as a consumer device.

"It's important for the group of people delivering Android devices to articulate a value proposition for a core audience," Spero said.

Despite this, analyst firm Gartner recently estimated Android will account for 10% of the smartphone market by 2011. But analysts said the first generation of devices may not capture the public's interest like an iPhone.

"The G1 is the first device coming to market supporting Google's operating system, Android," said Roberta Cozza, Gartner's principal analyst, in a statement. "Although this will give us a taste of what the platform will be able to do, we are expecting some limitations given this is the first device."

While the Android OS will eventually be on a slew of devices from Sprint, LG, and Samsung, it's inevitable that the Dream will be compared with Apple's iPhone.

This comparison isn't exactly fair, as every aspect of the iPhone was developed primarily by a single company, whereas the Dream's hardware was made by HTC and its software comes from more than one Open Handset Alliance member.

Even though it has similar features, the Dream probably won't offer the same "wow" factor that the iPhone did, industry experts said. But as popular as the iPhone is, it still accounts for a relatively small percentage of the overall handset market.

Shawn Bohonos, CEO of Routeme2 Technologies, recently saw his application named a finalist in Google's Android Developer's Challenge. He said the platform and the industry consortium will lead to innovation in the mobile arena.

"A similar comparison is the CDMA vs. GSM debate, when initially CDMA was able to innovate more quickly than GSM since it was developed by a small group of companies," Bohonos said. "GSM, on the other hand, was developed by a consortium, which didn't yield itself to rapid development, but over time, it was able to achieve better economies of scale and adoption than CDMA, thereby driving end user costs down."

Applications

The success of Apple's App Store, which is on pace for a billion downloads sometime in 2009, has shown the hunger for mobile applications. These mobile programs will be a critical driver in adoption of Android devices.

But Google is taking a different approach to the distribution of these apps, and its Android Marketplace will have fewer restrictions than Apple's. For example, Apple preapproves all applications in its store and takes a 30% cut of any sold. Google said its Android Market will feature a YouTube-like system for publishing, distributing, and commenting on apps, and the search giant won't take any of the revenue.

Some developers already are praising Google for its open approach with both the market and its SDK.

"The fact that Android apps can be developed in Java means that existing Java ME applications are easier to port to Android than to the iPhone, since code can be reused, whereas for the iPhone it needs to be rewritten in another language," said Bohonos. "Thus, the barrier to entry of Android has dramatically reduced the skills required to get up and running on mobile devices."

Ambrosio said the debate over a closed or open distribution method is not as important as the support offered and the interest it can generate for your brand. Because of this, he sees the Android Market as critical to Google because it enables them to tie their online offerings to mobile.

"Apple is much more into selling boxes," said Ambrosio. "For Google, more than any single handset or device, it's important to get the app store right."

The Android platform seems squarely aimed at the consumer market, but some figure it could eventually be Google's strongest move into the enterprise market.

As more companies rely on Web-based mission-critical software, Ambrosio sees Google's strengths in that area as a major advantage for Android devices. But he expects Google to target the consumer market first, and eventually make a strong push for the enterprise.

A recent study by J. Gold Associates suggests that most companies will take a wait-and-see approach with Android, though.

The report said Research In Motion will remain the dominant player in the United States for enterprise smartphones, with nearly 60% of the market in 2011. This will be followed by Windows Mobile, Apple's iPhone, Symbian, and Palm. The report estimated Android will garner a relatively small 4.8% of the market in three years.

A Crowded Market

Cracking the mobile market won't be easy, as companies like RIM, Windows Mobile, Symbian, and Apple won't give up their market share without a fight. Many companies are emphasizing their experience in the mobile space as Nokia, the largest manufacturer of smartphones in the world, recently upped the ante in the software war by buying out Symbian in June and creating the Symbian Foundation with the goal of making Symbian an open source OS. Executives believe the company's "mobile DNA" will enable the OS to remain dominant.

"I think that the fact there is a mature platform that is being introduced in an open source environment kind of changes the game," said David Rivas, head of technology management at Nokia's S60, in an interview with Reuters. "The choices up until then were: You could go with proprietary and mature, or you could go with immature and free. Now there is a choice that is free and mature."