iPad 2 Sales Projected To SoariPad 2 Sales Projected To Soar

Apple Announces iPad2

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has published his first batch of sales numbers for the iPad 2 launch. He said the much larger retail footprint for the opening weekend of availability will lead to shorter lines, but greater overall sales.

Munster noted that the original iPad went on sale at 221 U.S. Apple Stores and close to 1,100 Best Buy Stores. This year, the iPad 2 will shockingly be available at more than 10,000 retail locations when it goes on sale Friday. That includes the 236 Apple stores, as well as AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Best Buy, Wal-Mart, and Target locations.

"Generally, the length of the lines at Apple retail stores on launch day have been a helpful early indication of demand," Munster wrote in a note to investors. "However, factors like online pre-orders, simultaneous international launches, weather, timing in the day, and the day of the week can all impact a consumer's willingness to go stand in line, but may not necessarily be indicative of immediate purchase intentions."

Last year, Apple allowed iPad buyers to order them ahead of time online. They were delivered on the same day that they became available in Apple Stores. This year, it isn't allowing pre-orders, which means if you want an iPad 2 on Friday, you're going to have to go shopping for it. This means more people will likely hit up all those aforementioned retail outlets.

Other changes to the way Apple is making the iPad available may also have a big impact on initial sales, noted Munster. For example, last year, the Wi-Fi model launched a full month before the 3G model became available, and international sales were pushed pretty far back from the initial launch.

This year, two different 3G versions of the iPad (one for AT&T, one for Verizon Wireless) will be available alongside the Wi-Fi model, with three different storage capacities and two different colors. The iPad 2 will go on sale in other markets within two weeks of the initial launch.

All this adds up to some whopping big numbers, predicted Munster. He estimated that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPad's during the first quarter it is available. That would handily beat the original iPad's 3.27 million in first-quarter sales.

The iPad 2 is a better product than its predecessor, yet it costs the same. Not only does Apple need to convince new customers to buy the iPad 2, but it has to win over existing customers -- who've already spent between $499 and $829 on an iPad.

The iPad 2 also has to appeal to would-be buyers of the Motorola Xoom and RIM PlayBook. Both Motorola and RIM believe they're going to move 1 million of their respective tablets in the early weeks of availability.