Linux Minus Linus: No Big Deal?Linux Minus Linus: No Big Deal?

There was a time when Linux could not have survived the departure of its creator, Linus Torvalds. Today, of course, the situation is very different -- or is it?The prevailing wisdom is that Linux has grown far beyond the point where its success depends upon any individual. That includes Linus Torvalds, who no longer does nearly as much day-to-day development work on the Linux kernel as he used to, even though his position as the kernel project's "benevolent dictator" remains pretty much unassailable.

Yet the house that Linus built might look awfully empty if, for whatever reason, he wasn't around to look after it. It's a scenario that many Linux supporters play down -- yet as Unix consultant Tony Lawrence points out, it is one that raises some interesting, and potentially dangerous, issues:

"The 'succession doesn't matter' arguments boil down to demonstrating that Linus Torvalds doesn't do all that much now, so succession really won't change much. Defenders are also quick to argue that Linux is only responsible for the kernel anyway and that most of the obstacles to widespread popularity come in other areas, like the Desktop. Those arguments definitely have truth in them, but there's more to it."

Lawrence doesn't just focus on succession issues within the Linux developer community here. In fact, he argues that of the "big three" desktop operating systems, the MacOS is actually most at risk, given just how important Steve Jobs' vision, charisma, and willpower is to the company's present -- and, presumably, future -- success.

I suspect that Lawrence is right on target here. Linus Torvalds is still a very important figure within the Linux community, yet his role will continue to shrink, in relative terms, as both the developer community and the Linux business community continue to grow and evolve. At some point -- maybe in a year, maybe in five or 10 years -- the very notion of a Linux "succession crisis" simply won't matter any more. That's an inevitable result of the Open Source evolutionary process, and it definitely is a Good Thing (as I am sure Torvalds himself would be the first to admit).

But Apple Computer without Steve Jobs? Now that truly would be a succession crisis.