More Open Source Predictions For 2004, From ReadersMore Open Source Predictions For 2004, From Readers

Regarding "Open Source Predictions for 2004."

I wonder if the title of "Open Source Predictions For 2004" should have been changed to "Predictions on Linux For 2004" to better serve the content of your article. I am interested in Open Source as a whole, rather than a specific, yet important piece of it. Open source also includes Apache, OpenOffice, Perl, PHP, MySQL, Python and others.

Just a thought.

Shen Liu

Editor's note: Hey, we made a prediction about Mozilla! That counts! -- Mitch Wagner

I just finished reading your predictions on Linux in the next year. My background is Microsoft primarily, but I'm not blind, so last year I started playing with Red Hat and some other distributions. My focus was implementing the systems and using the network security and network sniffing tools. I hope to have time to get my Red Hat certification this year, but have a few more Microsoft tests to take first.

Do you think that industry trends will drive Microsoft to eventually port SQL Server to Linux? Microsoft is moving toward a common language runtime that would allow them to make the port if they wanted to. It seems logical to do so if Linux takes over market share in that area.

Trends seem to be moving towards data center consolidation using blades for servers and workstations, increased use of network-attached storage, and PC and server virtualization. It seems likely we will see more tools for controlling, securing and decreasing downtime in these environments, to make the most of investments in hardware and software. I envision Windows will benefit from this in the future. Entire ISPs will run virtually providing Citrix farms, web applications and web services.I also see Linux benefiting from the virtualization in some of the same ways. I was wondering what you thoughts were on this?

Cary McDonald, CCA, CCNP, MCSE + Internet, MCSE:Security

Editor's note: My prediction is that Microsoft will not port SQL Server or any of its other applications to Linux in 2004.

However, we may well see Microsoft embrace Linux and open source in the next few years. Microsoft is now treating Linux and open source like it did every other competitor it's had since it achieved a desktop monopoly in the 1990s. Microsoft competed against Netscape, Novell, IBM's OS/2, and Borland by trying to put the competitive company out of business -- in the case of OS/2, that translated to Microsoft succeeding in forcing IBM to shut down the OS/2 business unit. The ideal outcome for Microsoft is what happened with OS/2: the competitive product ceases to be upgraded, the source code gets put up on a shelf somewhere -- visualize the warehouse where the Lost Ark got stored in the first Indiana Jones movie -- and the product very nearly disappears.

But Linux and open source are not products, controlled by individual single companies. As long as there are developers willing to work on Linux and other open source products, the software will continue to survive, or even thrive.

Or, to put it another way: software monopolies like Microsoft like to talk about cutting off the air supplies of enemy businesses, be they competitors or recalcitrant customers. But open source and Linux don't need air to survive. Like Dr. McCoy said to Captain Kirk: It's life, Jim, but not as we know it.

Right now, Microsoft is in the mode of competing with open source and Linux as it would with a competitive product from another company. That strategy has yet to run its course, but eventually, I expect they will see that open source and Linux are different from other software product. After that, ports of major Microsoft apps to Linux are certainly possible, as is a Microsoft Linux distro.

Ultimately: Either Microsoft will be forced to embrace Linux and open source, or the company will be hurt very badly by it. I expect the tipping point for this change, like many others, will be when Linux gets double-digit market share on the desktop, which I do not see happening in 2004 -- and even then, Microsoft's first step will be to step up the competition, rather than embrace open source and Linux.

But that's not coming any time soon. Through 2004, I expect both Microsoft and open source will continue to thrive.

I like your predictions and suspect they will come to pass -- more or less unchanged. I would like to comment though:

First, predictions 8, 9, & 10 are entirely dependent upon 1 coming true and 2 resulting in the essential character of the GPL being upheld in the courts.However, I am not sure that, if challenged, the GPL will be upheld simply, because the GPL model provides no way to ensure that copyrighted code is not inserted by some anonymous individualalong the way (either accidentally or on purpose).

Regarding prediction 1 however, I don't think it will end quite so cleanly. By suing IBM, SCO has placed themselves in a must-win position --they must prevail against IBM in order to retain any leverage in the Unix community.Remember, all the big Unix players already own perpetual licenses to Unix -- thus SCO'svery survivalis dependent upon their being able to collect Unix license fees from a lot of small companies -- many (if not most) of whom may indeed choose Linux instead if SCO does not prevail! In short, if SCO does not prevail in court, they will simply drown in attorneys' fees -- eventually filing for bankruptcy and selling off what's left of their Unix property rights to the highest bidder.

Novell is the wildcard: if they can demonstrate to the courts that they retain ownership of AT&T System V, then SCO has no case.If Novell cannot prove ownership, then SCO will have to prove that IBM violated their license.One way or the other, IBM will not give uptheir rights to AIX. Thus I suspect that Novell is acting as an IBM "proxy" and, if this approach fails,thateither IBM or Novell willbuy SCO outright soIBM'slicense to AIXcan be reinstated.

If I am wrong, IBM will settle out of court before they allow this case to raise doubts among their own customers.

SCO is like the basketball team who knows they can only win by wearing down the competition with stalling tactics. IBM's pockets are deeper than SCO's and everyone knows it!

From one perspective, SCO wins if it ends up with more money in the bank than when they started. They win BIG if they also end up killing off their competition -- Linux -- and thencollecting fees from all existingLinux customers. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely.

I predict that, in the end, SCO will not survive as an independent entity, the GPL will survive in something resembling its present form, and Linux will take its rightful place as another Unix flavor -- with or without Unix code inside.

I have one more thought -- regarding your predictions 4 and 5:

I agree that, in the US, Linux will not pose a threat to the Windows juggernaut in 2004 however, as Windows saturates domestic markets, Microsoft must makeinroads into international marketsin order to maintain its market dominance worldwide.The headlines suggest that a growing number of governments overseas are rejecting Microsoft and its anti-competitive practices.If this trend continues, I expect that Microsoft will see an eroding of its influence as more and more governments (and thus their corporate vendors) turn to Linux distributors for solutions. Whether it is 2004 or 2005, Microsoft is going to be challenged. As you point out, everybody wins in this scenario.

C. Marc Wagner
Services Development Specialist
UITS, Student Technology Centers
Indiana University, Bloomington

Editor's note: The author is not a relative. -- Mitch Wagner

6. MOZILLA WILL NOT GAIN significant market share against Microsoft Internet Explorer, but Mozilla users will continue to love their browser.

Agreed.. those who love it now (God knows why, but I suspect it has something to do with mammoth RAM and CPU installation on their machines) will continue to use it. And let's face it, Mozilla does have some nifty features.

But what about Opera?

We'd appreciate some stats about how this (proprietary, yes, adware, yes) wonderful browser has garnered a fan following who simply love the power given to the user with a few clicks, or even with mouse gestures!

Edgar D'Souza

Editor's note: I use Opera myself, but I don't see it gaining significant market share over Microsoft Internet Explorer on desktop PCs in 2004. -- Mitch Wagner

Regarding prediction 3, Linux on desktop of major corporation: too late.

Red Johnson

Editor's note: Not quite. I predicted a major pilot, the article you referenced says simply that IBM's CIO is simply encouraging senior managers to use Linux on the desktop. I agree that's a significant development though -- look for an article on the subject on our web site soon. -- Mitch Wagner