PalmSource's Secret LicenseePalmSource's Secret Licensee

PalmSource provided some potentially optimistic clues about the future of the Palm OS in the last week. But the first question is: which major phone vendor is picking up the Palm OS?

PalmSource revealed it signed a tier-one handset vendor and will release details soon. The guessing game has started as to which vendor it is. To me, the most obvious guess is Motorola.

Of the top five handset vendors, Nokia and Sony Ericsson are firmly committed to Symbian, which they co-own with several other leading handset manufacturers. Samsung already is a Palm OS licensee. That leaves Motorola and Korea's LG. Of those two, Motorola is most committed to providing diverse platforms for its smartphones and other devices -- it already has Symbian and Windows mobile phones. Adding a Palm OS device would make sense.

But whether or not I'm right, that still begs huge questions about the future of the struggling Palm OS. Will Motorola (or another vendor if my guess is wrong) use the Linux version of the Palm OS? Will any top-tier vendors? The initial Linux version will be available for so-called feature phones next summer and for smartphones somewhat after that. Or will Motorola use the Cobalt variation of the Palm OS, the advanced multi-tasking version aimed at competing directly with Windows Mobile? Cobalt is powerful but, so far, there are no Cobalt smartphones for sale.

I'm going to guess again that a Motorola Linux phone is in the works. If so, that would bode well for the future of both PalmSource and its platform. PalmSource accelerated its push into Linux with its acquisition of a Chinese software vendor. It's now clear that the company and platform would have withered away without this switch to Linux -- it was simply losing too much ground among handset vendors and mobile operators.

However, I believe all major phone vendors, even Symbian's co-owners, will look seriously at Linux. In fact, Nokia already has signaled its strong support for Linux, although not necessarily for the PalmSource version.

However, while the port of the Palm OS to Linux gets a lot of attention, a potentially more important development is how PalmSource's Chinese acquisition will help establish the Palm OS in that country. I've heard two separate industry gurus describe this move as brilliant because it gives the company a foot in the door of that market that the other major platform vendors, Symbian and Microsoft, simply can't match.

And the benefits of that move will accrue to palmOne as well, which remains committed to the Palm platform even as rumors continue to swirl that it also will release a Windows Mobile version of its Treo smartphone.

We can all read the tea leaves together on PalmSource's future. Any tier-one signing is good, but if it's Motorola and Linux, that's particularly good because it indicates that PalmSource made the right decision when moving toward Linux.