The Battle Over Your Future PhoneThe Battle Over Your Future Phone

Linux And Other Wildcards

Although Microsoft has, so far, had difficulty convincing the largest handset vendors to use its platform it does have one strong advantage: It is extremely strong in the enterprise, notes David Linsalata, a research analyst at IDC.

"The enterprise is where smartphones have the strongest value proposition," Linsalata notes. "And Microsoft has the brands strength there to get over a number of barriers." However, it's lack of success with large handset vendors, combined with the relative complexity of the Windows Mobile interface -- at least compared to its competitors -- has so limited Microsoft's success, he said. But, he added, the latest update of Windows Mobile does have some interface touch-ups.

The wild cards in the platform battle are the Palm OS, Linux and the BlackBerry platform. The palmOne Treo, based on the Palm OS, is popular in the North America, but it hasn't caught on in the rest of the world.

"North America is their (Palm's) last remaining stronghold," Mawston said. "And whether they can hold on to that market is very open to question."

That doesn't necessarily open the door in North America for Nokia and, by association, Symbian, Mawston noted. Nokia has seen overall sales of its phones fall, he said.

"Until Nokia rebuilds its market share (in North America), Symbian will struggle there," Mawston said. "So in North America, it's Palm versus Microsoft, for now."

The biggest unknown is Linux. Linsalata predicted that Linux would eventually become the second-leading platform behind Symbian, at least worldwide.

"Linux will come on strong in the next year," Linsalata said. "A key there is NTT DoCoMo endorsing Linux along with Symbian. Plus, Linux has a lot of potential to become a consumer-focused platform because of PalmSource." That's because Linux' user interface is none to friendly while the Palm OS is well known for its ease of use, Linsalata noted. PalmSource is expected will make add a user-friendly interface to Linux.

If Linux becomes a successful smartphone platform, it will push smartphones, which have, so far, largely been an enterprise phenomenon, into the consumer space, the analysts agreed. One reason for that is that Linux devices, based on open source, could be less expensive than devices based on platforms from vendors like Microsoft or Symbian.

"Consumer (smartphones) eventually will be twice the size of the enterprise," Linsalata said. "But that won't happen until '08 or '09. For now, the demand is coming from the enterprise."

The Issue Of Loyalty

While Nokia has maintained its strong loyalty to Symbian, many device vendors are showing no particular loyalty to one platform or another. For instance, Motorola, a one-time co-owner of Symbian, has mobile devices based on that platform as well as Windows Mobile and Linux.

"Some vendors are hedging their bets and going for all platforms because nobody really is sure where the market is going," Mawston said.

Even palmOne, the one-time corporate sibling of PalmSource and a long-time Palm OS stalwart, is rumored to have a Windows Mobile device under development. The company strongly refused to deny -- or confirm -- those rumors.

"There'd be an advantage to (palmOne) being cross-platform," Linsalata said. Specifically, he noted that devices based on the Microsoft platform often have a leg up in enterprises, particularly in North America where palmOne is strongest.

"If there's a Microsoft shop and they only want Microsoft devices, it would help palmOne if they had one," Linsalata said.

Then, there's BlackBerry. Early on, BlackBerry devices developed a cult following among business users, but they've since hit the mainstream and their success is continuing. In fact, one recent study claimed that BlackBerry was now the leading brand of PDAs, although other researchers questioned the methodology of that study.

The bottom line is that this is the time in which a major trend in the mobility business is shaking itself out. It not only is fascinating to watch, but it will determine the type and brand of device you use a year or two from now when you communicate while you're mobile.