Is Moblin Headed Up Or Just Sideways?Is Moblin Headed Up Or Just Sideways?

Behind the scenes, Moblin's taking off. Both MSI and Acer have tapped Intel for the netbook-friendly distro to power future editions of each of their products. So what's to stop history from repeating itself -- i.e., Windows (7) gobbling up Moblin there, too?

After the last wave of Linux-powered machines came along, the one big winner of the bunch seemed to be Asus's Eee PC -- but more in its Windows variant than anything else, as time went on. In fact, that seems to be the fate of most any Linux-driven computing device that isn't a phone: its Windows-equipped equivalent winds up eating into its marketshare.

One problem is an increasing sense that netbooks don't really add up to much in the way of savings or convenience -- and that the cost difference between a netbook with Linux and one with Windows isn't itself a significant enough motivator by itself to choose Linux. The major cost differences between tiers of computer have nothing to do with the OS, anyway -- they're about the size of the screen, or cutting-edge features like WAN connectivity or Blu-ray Disc playback. Most people, when faced with the option of cutting $100 or more from the price of a notebook, don't even think about the OS as a way to do that.

This all comes on the heels of British computer retailer PC World deciding to not stock Linux-based netbooks in their cinderblock-and-mortar stores. They've cited sales figures that show when given a choice, people pick -- what else? -- Windows, and with Win7 looming and now sporting an October street date they figure it's better to go with what's familiar.

I'm not sure Moblin will be able to do more than put a dent in that -- not when previous attempts to do the same have all fizzled or become little more than also-rans. They may be able to do it best by running on architectures that Windows is explicitly not supporting (e.g., ARM), and they may also be able to do it if they can create the same kind of culture of applications around it that Windows itself has, and that Android and the iPhone have been accumulating -- but that requires a whole galaxy of work unto itself.

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