Linux Aims For The DesktopLinux Aims For The Desktop

Microsoft, unwilling to lose customers in emerging markets who hope to save money by moving to Linux, in August introduced Windows XP Starter Edition, a low-priced version of Windows that it will sell in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Microsoft won't say how much Starter Edition is priced at, but it's less than Windows XP Professional, whose license fee in the United States runs up to $300 per desktop.

All of this will likely relegate desktop Linux to niche areas for the foreseeable future, says Bill Claybrook, president of New River Marketing Research. That includes design and engineering, where tech-savvy users never learned to rely on Windows.

Still, there's an opportunity for Linux to capture share, he says. It's not exactly clear when Windows Longhorn will arrive or what it will include. Microsoft last month said it would scale back key technology promised for Longhorn called the Windows File System, which was supposed to make it easier for PC users to search for files without burrowing through stacks of folders, in order to ship the product by 2006.

"No one is sure when Longhorn will be available, and when it is, it will be totally different than what's available today," Claybrook says. Longhorn also is expected to have a higher price tag than Windows XP and to take up a larger chunk of memory.

But perhaps the most important reason Linux hasn't taken off on the desktop, Claybrook says, is that systems vendors and software companies haven't "put their heart into capturing market share."

Linux grew up in computer centers used to serving up Web pages and performing other behind-the-scenes chores. It also has gained a foothold in the servers and technical workstations used by scientists and engineers. One big reason for that is that Linux resembles a free, sharable version of Unix, which techies and academics have known and loved for years. Also, porting Unix software to run on Linux has been relatively easy. But there's little Unix to replace in the market for desktop PCs, and everyday users don't have as much tolerance for the ins and outs of Unix. "All of the companies that have deployed Linux on servers are wondering if they can apply the cost savings to the desktop," says Jeffrey Wade, HP's manager of Linux marketing communications.

HP sold $2.5 billion worth of Linux-based computers last year and unloads 400,000 desktop PCs preloaded with Linux each quarter, mostly in Asia. Still, Wade says he doesn't believe Linux will account for more than 3% of desktop operating system sales anytime soon. The company isn't even marketing its new Linux notebook.

Dell's approach is similar. The No. 1 PC maker offers Red Hat Linux preinstalled on workstations and servers, but not on PCs. Companies can specially order a PC with Linux. But "desktop Linux is still not shipping in high enough volume to be a factor for Dell," a spokeswoman says.

IBM, which has been one of enterprise Linux's greatest champions, also isn't convinced of its potential on PCs, though it does see a market for Linux on more-robust workstations used by designers in the automotive and life-sciences industries.

In June, IBM teamed with Intel to launch a sort of Linux notebook on steroids that IBM calls a "mobile workstation." A pilot program with Intel, National Semiconductor, and IBM Microelectronics targets electrical engineers who traditionally have used desk-bound Unix boxes. The souped-up ThinkPads sport Intel's Centrino processor and chipset, and run Cadence Design Systems Inc. software.

The responsibility for adoption falls squarely on the shoulders of the Linux vendor community, says West Point's Dodge. "The open-source community isn't getting paid to improve Linux's desktop interface."

In other words, if Novell, Red Hat, and others want to grab market share away from Microsoft, they've got to do a better job of making the case for PC Linux.